Forecasting from Data
This talk could be called, “Why Nate Silver Was Right”. Nate's correct predictions during the 2012 US elections made him famous, but he actually used very straightforward, simple concepts that can be applied in a variety of business settings. This talk reviews his techniques, and includes an overview of Bayesian statistics, which allow you to use a priori estimates to refine your forecasts over time.
Topics will include pre- and post-processing data, judging similarities, available tools and technologies, and an (uncertain, of course) forecast of the future.
About Kenneth Kousen
Ken Kousen is a Java Champion, several time JavaOne Rock Star, and a Grails Rock Star. He is the author of the Pragmatic Library books “Mockito Made Clear” and “Help Your Boss Help You,” the O'Reilly books “Kotlin Cookbook”, “Modern Java Recipes”, and “Gradle Recipes for Android”, and the Manning book “Making Java Groovy”. He also has recorded over a dozen video courses for the O'Reilly Learning Platform, covering topics related to Android, Spring, Java, Groovy, Grails, and Gradle.
His academic background include BS degrees in Mechanical Engineering and Mathematics from M.I.T., an MA and Ph.D. in Aerospace Engineering from Princeton, and an MS in Computer Science from R.P.I. He is currently President of Kousen IT, Inc., based in Connecticut.
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