Estimating vs. Guessing - How Agile Teams Estimate Their Work

Estimating is regarded as little little more than 'educated guessing', but so much can hang on the quality of those estimates. With good estimates we can set clear expectations for project delivery, but with bad estimates we can run over schedule and over budget, or worse. We often estimate when we know the least about the work that needs to get done - so how can we make the best of what is potentially a bad situation?

In this session we will look at how successful agile teams estimate the scope of work at the beginning of a project, estimate the amount of work that fits into any one iteration, track the work through the iteration, and the 'burn down' through the end of the project. We will look at 'low ceremony' estimation techniques like planning poker, trim down 'high ceremony' techniques like Wideband Delphi, and look at “FET+“, an estimation technique originally developed as a foil for a CMMi effort.

With a little effort, a little planning, a little tracking, open communication, and some good metrics, estimation does not have to be a 'crystal ball' activity.

About David Bock

David Bock is a Principal Consultant at CodeSherpas, a company he founded in 2007. Mr. Bock is also the President of the Northern Virginia Java Users Group, the Editor of O'Reilly's OnJava.com website, and a frequent speaker on technology in venues such as the No Fluff Just Stuff Software Symposiums.

In January 2006, Mr. Bock was honored by being awarded the title of Java Champion by a panel of esteemed leaders in the Java Community in a program sponsored by Sun. There are approximately 100 active Java Champions worldwide.

David has also served on several JCP panels, including the Specification of the Java 6 Platform and the upcoming Java Module System.

In addition to his public speaking and training activities, Mr. Bock actively consults as a software engineer, project manager, and team mentor for commercial and government clients.

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